Why Staten Island Sellers Keep Overpricing by 8 to 12 Percent
Here is the pattern I see every single week.
A seller sits down with me. They have done their homework. They pulled Zillow. They checked a few comps. They talked to the neighbor who sold last year. They have a number in their head.
That number is almost always 8 to 12 percent higher than the real adjusted comp range.
Not 2 percent. Not 20 percent. Specifically 8 to 12 percent. Every time.
Let me explain why this happens, why it costs sellers tens of thousands of dollars, and how to break the pattern.
I am Allison Mireau with Real Connect Group.
The 8 to 12 percent trap
It is not random. It is a predictable combination of behavioral patterns that push every seller to the same wrong number.
5 percent for emotional attachment to the home
3 percent for the renovation/update money the seller put in
2 percent “cushion to negotiate”
Minus whatever the real comps actually say
Add it up. Eight to twelve percent above reality. Every single time.
Why sellers do it
Six specific reasons, in order of frequency.
1. The emotional premium
“This house is special”
Twenty years of memories, kids growing up, the kitchen where everyone gathered
Buyers do not pay for your memories
Emotional premium costs sellers 3 to 5 percent on average
2. The renovation money math
“We put $60,000 into the kitchen two years ago”
“That has to be worth $75,000 at resale”
Renovations rarely return 100 percent at resale
Most return 55 to 80 percent per Remodeling Magazine Cost vs Value data
Over-crediting renovations costs sellers another 2 to 4 percent
3. The negotiation cushion
“We’ll price high because buyers always want to negotiate”
The math does not work the way sellers think
Overpriced homes get fewer showings, not more low offers
The “cushion” actually scares away the serious buyer
Costs sellers 2 to 3 percent
4. The neighbor-sold-for-more story
“The house down the street sold for $800,000 two years ago”
But that was 2024
But that house had a renovated kitchen
But that house had a flat yard
But that house had a finished basement
Anchoring to the wrong comp costs 3 to 6 percent
5. The Zillow Zestimate anchor
Zillow pulls from public records with no condition adjustments
Zestimate is a starting conversation, not a comp analysis
Sellers who anchor to the Zestimate are often 5 to 15 percent high
Zillow itself says the Zestimate is an estimate, not an appraisal
6. The Realtor who tells them what they want to hear
The listing agent who pitches high to win the listing
Promises to “test the market” at an aspirational number
Comes back in 30 days asking for a reduction
Comes back in 60 days asking for another reduction
Costs sellers 8 to 12 percent plus the baggage of a stale listing
All six push sellers to the same wrong range. Which is why I see 8 to 12 percent overpricing almost every week.
What the 8 to 12 percent actually costs you
Let me do the math on a $750,000 home.
Priced right at $750,000
Sells in 10 to 21 days
Final sale price: $745,000 to $755,000
Net to seller after closing costs: around $695,000
Carrying costs during listing: minimal
Priced 10 percent high at $825,000
Sits 45 to 90 days with no offers
First reduction after 30 days to $795,000
Second reduction after 60 days to $759,000
Finally sells at $732,000 after inspection credits
Net to seller: around $678,000
Carrying costs during the longer window: $7,500 to $15,000 extra
Difference: $17,000 to $25,000 lost by overpricing.
Plus the baggage of a stale listing. Plus the stress of the longer timeline. Plus the second-guessing from every showing that did not produce an offer.
Why overpricing specifically fails on SI
Staten Island is a market where buyers can see every listing move. The MLS, Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com all pull the same data. Days on market and price-reduction history are public.
Buyers notice stale listings immediately
Agent networks share the “that one is overpriced” message fast
First-week momentum is everything
A listing that sits past 21 days attracts lowballers, not serious offers
Reductions do not reset the clock on days-on-market history
You get one real launch window. Overpricing wastes it.
The myth that overpricing works
The old-school logic went like this:
“Price high, let buyers make us an offer”
“You can always come down, you can never go up”
“The market will tell us”
None of this logic works in a transparent-MLS, Zillow-visible, Redfin-syndicated market.
What actually happens when you overprice:
Serious buyers skip your listing entirely
They set a Zillow alert in a lower price band
They never see your home
Showings come from browsers, not buyers
Offers come from lowballers testing weakness
You reduce, which signals desperation
The eventual sale price lands lower than it would have if you had priced right from day one
The market does not reward testing. It punishes it.
The specific comp mistakes SI sellers make
Mistake 1: Comparing to list price, not sold price
“That house on Main Street is listed at $800,000”
Listed is not sold
Sold is sold
Only sold prices tell you what the market actually pays
Mistake 2: Using old sold prices
“The house down the block sold for $780,000 in 2024”
Different market cycle
Different conditions
Not a current comp
Mistake 3: Ignoring condition differences
“Same model as mine sold for $770,000”
But they had a renovated kitchen and bath
Your dated home does not compare
Adjustment required
Mistake 4: Ignoring lot differences
“Same square footage sold for $810,000”
But they had a flat half-acre
You have a sloped quarter-acre with a shared driveway
Not the same comp
Mistake 5: Including off-market “I heard” prices
“I heard the Smiths got $825,000”
Rumor is not data
Private sales do not provide verified terms
Mistake 6: Averaging a wide range
“Comps run $650,000 to $800,000”
Averaging to $725,000
Averages hide the real adjusted number
Your home may belong anywhere in that range or outside it
Mistake 7: Ignoring concessions on sold comps
Sold at $800,000 but with $30,000 in closing credits
Real sale value is $770,000
Public records do not always show concessions
Need agent-level data to see the real terms
What a real pricing conversation looks like
When I sit down with a seller, this is the honest sequence.
Step 1: Pull real adjusted comps
3 to 6 sold comps from the last 90 days
Walked through personally when possible
Adjusted for condition, size, lot, location, timing
Step 2: Build an adjusted range
Not a single number
Usually a 5 to 10 percent range
Where your home fits inside that range depends on specifics
Step 3: Check active competition
What else is for sale right now
Where buyers are comparing you
What the next-24-months supply looks like
Step 4: Review pending sales
Directional data on where the market is moving
Not confirmed until closed
Factored in but not weighted heavily
Step 5: Set the strategic price
Inside the adjusted range
Positioned to invite two serious buyers in the first 14 days
Not above the range
Not aspirational
Market-driven
Step 6: Model the net
Full net sheet at the strategic price
Compared to the “aspirational” price with likely reductions
Honest conversation about which path produces more money
The seller sees the full picture. Then they decide. The number almost always comes down.
The pricing agents who win sellers by telling them what they want
Watch for this pattern.
Agent 1 says: “Your home is worth $720,000 based on adjusted comps”
Agent 2 says: “Your home is worth $720,000 based on adjusted comps”
Agent 3 says: “I think we can get $800,000”
Which agent gets the listing?
Agent 3. Every time. Because they said the number the seller wanted to hear.
Three months later, the home is reduced to $745,000. Six months later, it sells for $710,000 after concessions. Net to seller: $10,000 less than Agent 1 or Agent 2 would have delivered. Plus months of carrying costs. Plus months of stress.
The agent who pitches high is almost never the agent who gets you the most money. They just win the listing agreement.
The three questions to ask any Realtor pitching a price
1. “What is the adjusted comp range?”
Not list prices
Not Zestimate
Adjusted comp range, with the adjustments shown
2. “Where does my home fit in that range and why?”
Specific reasoning
Condition, size, lot, location, timing
Not “we’ll test the market”
3. “What is the plan if we are priced wrong?”
At what day do we reduce
By how much
Based on what signals
If the answers are vague, the pricing is vague. Which means the strategy is vague. Which means the net at the end is going to disappoint.
The breaking point for most sellers
Sellers break out of the 8-to-12 percent trap when they see the net sheet.
The “aspirational” price with likely reductions and extended time on market
Vs the strategic price with fast sale and clean close
Side by side
The dollar difference is usually $15,000 to $40,000. On the strategic price side.
When sellers see that math, the overpricing instinct disappears.
What SI sellers specifically need to hear
Staten Island is a market where overpricing is exposed within 7 to 14 days.
The showing pattern tells you immediately
The agent feedback tells you immediately
The second-showing rate tells you immediately
Serious buyers do not negotiate overpriced listings into reality — they skip them
You cannot test the SI market with high pricing and succeed. Not in 2026. Not at any price point. The data is too visible, the agents too connected, the buyers too informed.
What I will not pretend to advise on
I am not an appraiser. For formal appraisals, work with a licensed appraiser. For specific tax or capital gains implications of your eventual sale price, work with your CPA. I can refer trusted ones on both sides of the bridge.
All of our work follows the Fair Housing Act, RESPA, the NAR Code of Ethics, and the real estate commission guidelines for New York and New Jersey.
Before you commit to your number
Ask yourself:
Is this the real adjusted comp price?
Or is this the real adjusted comp price plus my emotional premium, my renovation math, my negotiation cushion, and my Zestimate anchor?
If I remove each of those add-ons, where does the real number land?
That real number is where you should list. Not the inflated version. The real one.
The 8 to 12 percent overprice is not a strategy. It is a pattern that costs SI sellers tens of thousands of dollars every month.
The sellers who break out of it net more money, sell faster, and move on with their lives sooner.
Have questions about selling your home or relocating? Reach out to Allison today.
Call: 646.266.0188
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.statenislandtonewjersey.com
Contact Allison today to sell your home in SI.
